NEW DELHI: The world must restrict its carbon emissions to 190 giga tonnes by 2050 if it is to have a chance of escaping the catastrophic consequences of global warming. These are the latest findings published in the scientific journal Nature.

According to the findings, all earlier calculations have been set aside with the warning that the planet can withstand even less of the greenhouse gases than had been envisaged earlier.

The warning has never been starker or simpler for everyone to understand. The latest studies show that there is a 75% chance that the world can escape the danger of global average temperature rising by more than 2 degrees Celsius over the pre-industrial era if it is able to keep its carbon emissions below 190 giga tonnes over the next 41 years.

Put simply, 190 giga tonnes is our carbon budget for the period up to 2050. But unlike a financial budget, there is no room for exceeding it. A 75% chance is, in scientific terms, reasonable, and nothing to be ecstatic about--but enough to give hope. If you think 190 giga tonnes is a huge amount of carbon to throw up in the air, read this--last year alone, the world emitted more than nine giga tonnes of carbon by burning fossil fuels.

The rate at which we emit carbon is increasing by 3% every year. If humanity continues to burn fossil fuels and gases unhindered at the same rate, the world will have consumed the entire carbon budget available to us that is 190 giga tonnesby 2029. Every single tonne of carbon after that will progressively reduce our chances of not letting temperatures increase above the 2 degree Celsius mark over the pre-industrialised era and consequently cause havoc.

For instance, if carbon emissions touch 310 giga tonnes between now and 2050, the chances of averting catastrophic climate change fall below 50%. The enormity of the task facing the planet becomes obvious after considering that if the world meets the most ambitious target that the major developed countries have talked about (and only talked about so far)-reducing global emissions by 80% from the 1990 levels by 2050-scientists estimate that 216-325 giga tonnes of carbon will have been sent up in the air, far exceeding the safe limit of 190 giga tonnes.

For those who may have forgotten the warning put out in 2007 by the community of scientists under the UN's intergovernmental panel on climate change, here it is again--if global average temperatures ever rise more than 2 degrees Celsius over the pre-industrial era, the world will see the irreversible and catastrophic impact of climate change that could impact billions of people, a large percentage of them being in India.

Two studies published in the latest edition of Nature warn world leaders that they are failing their people, and failing miserably. Both studies, conducted by different sets of scientists, use a common principle. Once we emit carbon in the air, it accumulates in the atmosphere. In other words, it sticks around for long. It does not break down. Stuck in the atmosphere, it warms up the planet.
Both warn that it's not just the emissions at present but the total accumulated emissions since the industrial era (when humanity started adding to the natural carbon in the air) that will determine how much time we have to avert a crisis and how quickly and by how much we should reduce our emissions today. What's to be done?

The world has to cut emissions faster and deeper. As the authors in the journal warn, the carbon budget is like a cake, much of which has been eaten by the developed world, leaving little for countries like India and China. For the budget to be adhered to, the industrialised countries have to lower their emissions dramatically. But this may not be enough to avert the crisis. Having been responsible for bringing the planet to the brink of a calamity because of their economic prosperity, the developed countries ought to help the emerging and developing economies to curtail their future emissions by assisting them with technology and funds.

How much do they need to pay out to help the developing countries cut emissions and adapt to climate change? India, China and other G77 countries have asked for 0.5-1% of the GDP of the industrialised countries to take dramatic emission reduction action. Considering that the GDP of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries in 2008 was $30.34 trillion, this works out to $150-300 billion.

The amount seems huge, but compare it with the stimulus packages that the rich countries have committed recently to avoid a financial meltdown the US alone will spend $268 billion in 2009 for economic recovery. The question Indian officials have raised at the international negotiations on climate change at the UN is worth repeating. If the rich countries can pour so much into their economies to save jobs, can't they put forth this relatively small amount to save millions from the disaster that their economies have created in the first place?

Swine flu being used to persecute Christians Cairo: An Egypt govern-ment policy to slaughter the country's pigs as a stated precaution against swine flu is also aimed at targeting and weakening Egypt's long persecuted Christian community, charged local Christian leaders.

Members of the Egyptian Christian Coptic community, speaking in interviews with WND today, said Egyptian authorities set up check-points in their communities and were harassing local Christians.

Almost the entire pig farming community in Egypt is run by Coptic Christians, who constitute between 8 and 15 percent of Egypt's population, depending on which statistical information is used.

Egypt yesterday started seizing and slaughtering herds of pigs in a bid to rid the country of its swine, explaining it was a safety precaution against swine flu. The move was heavily criticized by the United Nations, which put out a statement that the mass cull of up to 400,000 pigs was "a real mistake" since the new flu strain has not been found in pigs.

International health organizations explained the H1N1 flu virus is spread by people, not pigs.

Muslims view pigs as unclean. In the Middle East, various superstitions have been perpetuated in the Arab media the past few days about how pigs spread the disease.

According to Coptic leaders in Egypt, officials from the country's health and agriculture ministries who are known to be sympathizers of the fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood made the decision to slaughter Egypt's pigs. The Christians spoke to WND on condition of anonymity out of fear of retaliation.

A Muslim journalist for one of the country's state run newspapers confirmed to WND that some top health and agriculture ministry officials publicly leading the swine killing charge are known Islamists. But he said it was not clear whether they were connected to the Muslim Brotherhood, which is in the opposition in Egypt.

"They are trying to take away our income," charged one Coptic leader. "Thousands of Christians lost their income."

Local Christians told WND the Egyptian government set up checkpoints in major Coptic communities, such as Delta and Behma. The checkpoints, the Christians said, was to ensure locals don't try to hide pigs by transferring them out of the farms.

The local Christians claimed Egyptian security forces were humiliating them at the checkpoints.

"They are forcing us to strip, like we might have pigs under our clothes. I think they are covering for a campaign of harming and humiliating Christians," said a local Christian.

Coptic Christians have been targeted by Islamist violence several times the past few years. In 2007, in one example, Muslims in Egypt attacked local Christians and set fire to their shops and homes after the Christian community was accused of attempting to build a church. The Egyptian government heavily restricts the construction or enlargement of churches, requiring permits for any Christian building.

Christians are effectively restricted from senior Egyptian government, military or educational positions, and any worship services require the permission of the government.

The Coptic Church, a major Christian community in Egypt, reportedly dates back to the origins of Christianity. Christians were the majority in Egypt until several centuries after the Arab conquest of the 7th century.

Meanwhile, Egyptian Agriculture Minister Amin Abaza said authorities already confiscated more than 1,000 pigs and that he was seeking military help for the slaughter.

The Egyptian media reported the slaughter of the country's estimated 400,000 pigs could take up to a month to complete.
 

This page is updated on May 25, 2009