NEW DELHI, TNN, 16 January 2010: The scare raised by the Supreme Court on Thursday about China being poised to overtake India in English proficiency is about to come true. The annual audit by Pratham, a well-known education NGO, reported on Friday that the ability to read and comprehend English varied wildly across India and only 43.8% of class I kids could read the alphabets, even in big capital letters.

It's worse than the average in many states. Gujarat is the worst with barely 25.3% class 1 children able to read capital letters. Bihar, Orissa, Assam and Jharkhand are only marginally better at 33.4%, 34.5%, 36% and 41.8%, respectively. In the south, Karnataka, despite its hi-tech glitter, scores just as bad only 37% of class I kids could pass the simple English test.

In short, the much-touted advantage that India enjoys over China because of its knowledge of English, could vanish pretty soon unless there is all-round recognition of the looming crisis. Education experts say that unless English is made compulsory in school, India might be in an irreversible slide.

In Kerala, the knowledge of English appeared the best with 85% of kids reading capital letters, West Bengal was way below at 57%. The enitre north-east and Himachal Pradesh have scored well.

Pratham's Annual Statistics of Education Report, the only private audit of elementary education in the country, was written after a survey of 575 out of 583 rural districts and 3.38 lakh households involving nearly seven lakh children.

The good news is that a lot more children are going to school. As many as 96% children in the age-group of 6-14 are in schools. In other words, access to education has dramatically improved; the issue is the quality of education being imparted.

In mathematics, for instance, it's only marginally better. Just 69% of class 1 students could recognise numbers between one and nine. The figure for states like Bihar, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and UP hovers between 50% and 60%, while all north-eastern states and Kerala are much better with more than 90% of their children recognising the numbers.

Alarmingly, things get worse as kids go up to higher classes. By class II, the national average of children who can recognise numbers between 11 and 99 declines to 54.6. And by class V, percentage of children who can do division comes down to 38%. MP and HP record relatively high levels topping the chart with over 60% of children in class V able to solve division problems. Chhattisgarh is the big success story showing the jump from 31% last year to 59% this year. Even in Kerala only 45% children of class V can do division. Goa is the best at 80% children doing division successfully.

In the case of English, performance improves after class V. Till class V many states show the falling trend of students either able to read words or sentences. It can be gauged from the fact that while in class V the all-India average of students who can read sentences is 25.7%, by class VIII it goes up to 60.2%.

But the decline till class V is noticeable. Many states like Gujarat, Jharkhand, Assam, Orissa, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, English language skills falls dramatically in class V. Even southern states follow the same trend. Take the case of Kerala. In class V only 54.5% children can read English sentences. In Gujarat it is abysmally low at 8%. In Tamil Nadu, only 19% children of class V can read sentences while in Uttar Pradesh it is 14%. Bihar remains more or less consistent at 31.3%.

In class VIII all the north-eastern states, except Tripura, Goa, HP and Kerala more than 80% of children can not only read simple sentences fluently but also understand the meaning.